Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

ß-Glucosidase on clay minerals: Structure and function in the synthesis of octyl glucoside.

ß-Glucosidase is a biological macromolecule that catalyzes the hydrolysis of various glycosides and oligosaccharides. It may also be used to catalyze the synthesis of glycosides under suitable conditions. Carrier-bound ß-glucosidase can enhance the enzymatic activity in the synthesis of glycosides in organic solvent solutions, although the molecular mechanism regulating activity is yet unknown. This study investigated the impact of utilizing montmorillonite (Mmt), attapulgite (Attp), and kaolinite (Kao) as carriers on the activity of ß-glucosidase from Prunus dulcis (PdBg). When Attp was used as carriers, the molecular dynamic (MD) simulations found the distance between pNPG and the active site residues E183 and E387 was minimally impacted by the adsorptions, hence PdBg maintained about 81.3 ± 0.89 % of its native activity. Out of the three clay minerals, the relative activity of PdBg loaded on Mmt was the lowest because of the highest electrostatic energy. The substrate channel of PdBg on Kao is directed towards the surface, limiting the accessibility of substrates. Secondary structure and conformation studies revealed that the conformational stability of PdBg in solvent solutions was enhanced by coupling to Attp. Unlike dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), N,N-dimethylformamide (DMF) and 1,2-dimethoxyethane (DME), tert-butanol (t-BA) did not penetrate into the active site of PdBg interfering with its binding to the substrate. The maximum yield of n-octyl-ß-glucoside (OGP) synthesis catalyzed by Attp-immobilized PdBg reached 48.3 %.

Advancing our understanding of the influence of drug induced changes in the gut microbiome on bone health.

The gut microbiome has been implicated in a multitude of human diseases, with emerging evidence linking its microbial diversity to osteoporosis. This review article will explore the molecular mechanisms underlying perturbations in the gut microbiome and their influence on osteoporosis incidence in individuals with chronic diseases. The relationship between gut microbiome diversity and bone density is primarily mediated by microbiome-derived metabolites and signaling molecules. Perturbations in the gut microbiome, induced by chronic diseases can alter bacterial diversity and metabolic profiles, leading to changes in gut permeability and systemic release of metabolites. This cascade of events impacts bone mineralization and consequently bone mineral density through immune cell activation. In addition, we will discuss how orally administered medications, including antimicrobial and non-antimicrobial drugs, can exacerbate or, in some cases, treat osteoporosis. Specifically, we will review the mechanisms by which non-antimicrobial drugs disrupt the gut microbiome's diversity, physiology, and signaling, and how these events influence bone density and osteoporosis incidence. This review aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between orally administered drugs, the gut microbiome, and osteoporosis, offering new insights into potential therapeutic strategies for preserving bone health.

New insights into the binding of PF4 to long heparin oligosaccharides in ultralarge complexes using mass spectrometry.

BACKGROUND: Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) is a serious complication caused by heparin drugs. The ultralarge complexes formed by platelet factor 4 (PF4) with heparin or low molecular weight heparins (LMWHs) are important participants in inducing the immune response and HIT. OBJECTIVES: We aim at characterizing the interaction between PF4 and long-chain heparin oligosaccharides and providing robust analytical methods for the analysis of PF4-heparin complexes. METHODS: In this work, the characteristics of PF4-enoxaparin complexes after incubation in different molar ratios and concentrations were analyzed by multiple analytical methods, especially liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with multiple reaction monitoring were developed to qualitatively and quantitatively monitor heparin oligosaccharides and PF4 in HIT-inducing complexes. RESULTS: The results showed that the largest proportion of ultralarge complexes formed by PF4 and enoxaparin was at a specific molar ratio, ie, a PF4/enoxaparin ratio of 2:1, while the ultralarge complexes contained PF4 tetramer and enoxaparin at a molar ratio of approximately 2:1. CONCLUSION: A binding model of PF4 and enoxaparin in ultralarge complexes is proposed with one heparin oligosaccharide chain (∼ dp18) bound to 2 PF4 tetramers in different morphologies to form ultralarge complexes, while PF4 tetramer is surrounded by multiple heparin chains in smaller complexes. Our study provides new insights into the structural mechanism of PF4-LMWH interaction, which help to further understand the mechanism of LMWH immunogenicity and develop safer heparin products.

Suramin binds and inhibits infection of SARS-CoV-2 through both spike protein-heparan sulfate and ACE2 receptor interactions.

SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domains (RBDs) interact with both the ACE2 receptor and heparan sulfate on the surface of host cells to enhance SARS-CoV-2 infection. We show that suramin, a polysulfated synthetic drug, binds to the ACE2 receptor and heparan sulfate binding sites on the RBDs of wild-type, Delta, and Omicron variants. Specifically, heparan sulfate and suramin had enhanced preferential binding for Omicron RBD, and suramin is most potent against the live SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) when compared to wild type and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants in vitro. These results suggest that inhibition of live virus infection occurs through dual SARS-CoV-2 targets of S-protein binding and previously reported RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibition and offers the possibility for this and other polysulfated molecules to be used as potential therapeutic and prophylactic options against COVID-19.

Data pipelines in a public health emergency: The human in the machine.

In an emergency epidemic response, data providers supply data on a best-faith effort to modellers and analysts who are typically the end user of data collected for other primary purposes such as to inform patient care. Thus, modellers who analyse secondary data have limited ability to influence what is captured. During an emergency response, models themselves are often under constant development and require both stability in their data inputs and flexibility to incorporate new inputs as novel data sources become available. This dynamic landscape is challenging to work with. Here we outline a data pipeline used in the ongoing COVID-19 response in the UK that aims to address these issues. A data pipeline is a sequence of steps to carry the raw data through to a processed and useable model input, along with the appropriate metadata and context. In ours, each data type had an individual processing report, designed to produce outputs that could be easily combined and used downstream. Automated checks were in-built and added as new pathologies emerged. These cleaned outputs were collated at different geographic levels to provide standardised datasets. Finally, a human validation step was an essential component of the analysis pathway and permitted more nuanced issues to be captured. This framework allowed the pipeline to grow in complexity and volume and facilitated the diverse range of modelling approaches employed by researchers. Additionally, every report or modelling output could be traced back to the specific data version that informed it ensuring reproducibility of results. Our approach has been used to facilitate fast-paced analysis and has evolved over time. Our framework and its aspirations are applicable to many settings beyond COVID-19 data, for example for other outbreaks such as Ebola, or where routine and regular analyses are required.

Feeding rates of malaria vectors from a prototype attractive sugar bait station in Western Province, Zambia: results of an entomological validation study.

BACKGROUND: Attractive targeted sugar bait (ATSB) stations are a promising new approach to malaria vector control that could compliment current tools by exploiting the natural sugar feeding behaviors of mosquitoes. Recent proof of concept work with a prototype ATSB® Sarabi Bait Station (Westham Co., Hod-Hasharon, Israel) has demonstrated high feeding rates and significant reductions in vector density, human biting rate, and overall entomological inoculation rate for Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) in the tropical savannah of western Mali. The study reported here was conducted in the more temperate, rainier region of Western Province, Zambia and was designed to confirm the primary vector species in region and to estimate corresponding rates of feeding from prototype attractive sugar bait (ASB) Sarabi Bait Stations. METHODS: The product evaluated was the Sarabi v1.1.1 ASB station, which did not include insecticide but did include 0.8% uranine as a dye allowing for the detection, using UV fluorescence light microscopy, of mosquitoes that have acquired a sugar meal from the ASB. A two-phase, crossover study design was conducted in 10 village-based clusters in Western Province, Zambia. One study arm initially received 2 ASB stations per eligible structure while the other initially received 3. Primary mosquito sampling occurred via indoor and outdoor CDC Miniature UV Light Trap collection from March 01 through April 09, 2021 (Phase 1) and from April 19 to May 28, 2021 (Phase 2). RESULTS: The dominant vector in the study area is Anopheles funestus s.l., which was the most abundant species group collected (31% of all Anophelines; 45,038/144,5550), had the highest sporozoite rate (3.16%; 66 positives out of 2,090 tested), and accounted for 94.3% (66/70) of all sporozoite positive specimens. Of those An. funestus specimens further identified to species, 97.2% (2,090/2,150) were An. funestus sensu stricto (s.s.). Anopheles gambiae s.l. (96.8% of which were Anopheles arabiensis) is a likely secondary vector and Anopheles squamosus may play a minor role in transmission. Overall, 21.6% (9,218/42,587) of An. funestus specimens and 10.4% (201/1,940) of An. gambiae specimens collected were positive for uranine, translating into an estimated daily feeding rate of 8.9% [7.7-9.9%] for An. funestus (inter-cluster range of 5.5% to 12.7%) and 3.9% [3.3-4.7%] for An. gambiae (inter-cluster range of 1.0-5.2%). Feeding rates were no different among mosquitoes collected indoors or outdoors, or among mosquitoes from clusters with 2 or 3 ASBs per eligible structure. Similarly, there were no correlations observed between feeding rates and the average number of ASB stations per hectare or with weekly rainfall amounts. CONCLUSIONS: Anopheles funestus and An. gambiae vector populations in Western Province, Zambia readily fed from the prototype Sarabi v1.1.1 ASB sugar bait station. Observed feeding rates are in line with those thought to be required for ATSB stations to achieve reductions in malaria transmission when used in combination with conventional control methods (IRS or LLIN). These results supported the decision to implement a large-scale, epidemiological cluster randomized controlled trial of ATSB in Zambia, deploying 2 ATSB stations per eligible structure.

The diverse role of heparan sulfate and other GAGs in SARS-CoV-2 infections and therapeutics.

In December 2019, the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which infects host cells primarily through the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. In addition to ACE2, several studies have shown the importance of heparan sulfate (HS) on the host cell surface as a co-receptor for SARS-CoV-2-binding. This insight has driven research into antiviral therapies, aimed at inhibiting the HS co-receptor-binding, e.g., by glycosaminoglycans (GAGs), a family of sulfated polysaccharides that includes HS. Several GAGs, such as heparin (a highly sulfated analog of HS), are used to treat various health indications, including COVID-19. This review is focused on current research on the involvement of HS in SARS-CoV-2 infection, implications of viral mutations, as well as the use of GAGs and other sulfated polysaccharides as antiviral agents.

Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The UK was the first country to start national COVID-19 vaccination programmes, initially administering doses 3 weeks apart. However, early evidence of high vaccine effectiveness after the first dose and the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant prompted the UK to extend the interval between doses to 12 weeks. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effect of delaying the second vaccine dose in England. METHODS: We used a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to COVID-19 surveillance data from England, including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data, using a Bayesian evidence-synthesis framework. We modelled and compared the epidemic trajectory in the counterfactual scenario in which vaccine doses were administered 3 weeks apart against the real reported vaccine roll-out schedule of 12 weeks. We estimated and compared the resulting numbers of daily infections, hospital admissions, and deaths. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated scenarios spanning a range of vaccine effectiveness and waning assumptions. FINDINGS: In the period from Dec 8, 2020, to Sept 13, 2021, the number of individuals who received a first vaccine dose was higher under the 12-week strategy than the 3-week strategy. For this period, we estimated that delaying the interval between the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses from 3 to 12 weeks averted a median (calculated as the median of the posterior sample) of 58 000 COVID-19 hospital admissions (291 000 cumulative hospitalisations [95% credible interval 275 000-319 000] under the 3-week strategy vs 233 000 [229 000-238 000] under the 12-week strategy) and 10 100 deaths (64 800 deaths [60 200-68 900] vs 54 700 [52 800-55 600]). Similarly, we estimated that the 3-week strategy would have resulted in more infections compared with the 12-week strategy. Across all sensitivity analyses the 3-week strategy resulted in a greater number of hospital admissions. In results by age group, the 12-week strategy led to more hospitalisations and deaths in older people in spring 2021, but fewer following the emergence of the delta variant during summer 2021. INTERPRETATION: England's delayed-second-dose vaccination strategy was informed by early real-world data on vaccine effectiveness in the context of limited vaccine supplies in a growing epidemic. Our study shows that rapidly providing partial (single-dose) vaccine-induced protection to a larger proportion of the population was successful in reducing the burden of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths overall. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research; UK Medical Research Council; Community Jameel; Wellcome Trust; UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; and EU.

Designer DNA nanostructures for viral inhibition.

Emerging viral diseases can substantially threaten national and global public health. Central to our ability to successfully tackle these diseases is the need to quickly detect the causative virus and neutralize it efficiently. Here we present the rational design of DNA nanostructures to inhibit dengue virus infection. The designer DNA nanostructure (DDN) can bind to complementary epitopes on antigens dispersed across the surface of a viral particle. Since these antigens are arranged in a defined geometric pattern that is unique to each virus, the structure of the DDN is designed to mirror the spatial arrangement of antigens on the viral particle, providing very high viral binding avidity. We describe how available structural data can be used to identify unique spatial patterns of antigens on the surface of a viral particle. We then present a procedure for synthesizing DDNs using a combination of in silico design principles, self-assembly, and characterization using gel electrophoresis, atomic force microscopy and surface plasmon resonance spectroscopy. Finally, we evaluate the efficacy of a DDN in inhibiting dengue virus infection via plaque-forming assays. We expect this protocol to take 2-3 d to complete virus antigen pattern identification from existing cryogenic electron microscopy data, ~2 weeks for DDN design, synthesis, and virus binding characterization, and ~2 weeks for DDN cytotoxicity and antiviral efficacy assays.

Feasibility, acceptability, and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against infectious diseases among crisis-affected populations: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are a crucial suite of measures to prevent and control infectious disease outbreaks. Despite being particularly important for crisis-affected populations and those living in informal settlements, who typically reside in overcrowded and resource limited settings with inadequate access to healthcare, guidance on NPI implementation rarely takes the specific needs of such populations into account. We therefore conducted a systematic scoping review of the published evidence to describe the landscape of research and identify evidence gaps concerning the acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of NPIs among crisis-affected populations and informal settlements. METHODS: We systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles published between 1970 and 2020 to collate available evidence on the feasibility, acceptability, and effectiveness of NPIs in crisis-affected populations and informal settlements. We performed quality assessments of each study using a standardised questionnaire. We analysed the data to produce descriptive summaries according to a number of categories: date of publication; geographical region of intervention; typology of crisis, shelter, modes of transmission, NPI, research design; study design; and study quality. RESULTS: Our review included 158 studies published in 85 peer-reviewed articles. Most research used low quality study designs. The acceptability, feasibility, and effectiveness of NPIs was highly context dependent. In general, simple and cost-effective interventions such as community-level environmental cleaning and provision of water, sanitation and hygiene services, and distribution of items for personal protection such as insecticide-treated nets, were both highly feasible and acceptable. Logistical, financial, and human resource constraints affected both the implementation and sustainability of measures. Community engagement emerged as a strong factor contributing to the effectiveness of NPIs. Conversely, measures that involve potential restriction on personal liberty such as case isolation and patient care and burial restrictions were found to be less acceptable, despite apparent effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the evidence base was variable, with substantial knowledge gaps which varied between settings and pathogens. Based on the current landscape, robust evidence-based guidance is not possible, and a research agenda is urgently required that focusses on these specific vulnerable populations. Although implementation of NPIs presents unique practical challenges in these settings, it is critical that such an agenda is put in place, and that the lessons learned from historical and present experiences are documented to build a firm evidence base.

Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rt eff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI: 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI: 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI: 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.

Estimating the potential impact of Attractive Targeted Sugar Baits (ATSBs) as a new vector control tool for Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

BACKGROUND: Attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) are a promising new tool for malaria control as they can target outdoor-feeding mosquito populations, in contrast to current vector control tools which predominantly target indoor-feeding mosquitoes. METHODS: It was sought to estimate the potential impact of these new tools on Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in African settings by combining data from a recent entomological field trial of ATSBs undertaken in Mali with mathematical models of malaria transmission. The key parameter determining impact on the mosquito population is the excess mortality due to ATSBs, which is estimated from the observed reduction in mosquito catch numbers. A mathematical model capturing the life cycle of P. falciparum malaria in mosquitoes and humans and incorporating the excess mortality was used to estimate the potential epidemiological effect of ATSBs. RESULTS: The entomological study showed a significant reduction of ~ 57% (95% CI 33-72%) in mosquito catch numbers, and a larger reduction of ~ 89% (95% CI 75-100%) in the entomological inoculation rate due to the fact that, in the presence of ATSBs, most mosquitoes do not live long enough to transmit malaria. The excess mortality due to ATSBs was estimated to be lower (mean 0.09 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.07-0.11 per day) than the bait feeding rate obtained from one-day staining tests (mean 0.34 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.28-0.38 per day). CONCLUSIONS: From epidemiological modelling, it was predicted that ATSBs could result in large reductions (> 30% annually) in prevalence and clinical incidence of malaria, even in regions with an existing high malaria burden. These results suggest that this new tool could provide a promising addition to existing vector control tools and result in significant reductions in malaria burden across a range of malaria-endemic settings.

Complete biosynthesis of a sulfated chondroitin in Escherichia coli.

Sulfated glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) are a class of important biologics that are currently manufactured by extraction from animal tissues. Although such methods are unsustainable and prone to contamination, animal-free production methods have not emerged as competitive alternatives due to complexities in scale-up, requirement for multiple stages and cost of co-factors and purification. Here, we demonstrate the development of single microbial cell factories capable of complete, one-step biosynthesis of chondroitin sulfate (CS), a type of GAG. We engineer E. coli to produce all three required components for CS production-chondroitin, sulfate donor and sulfotransferase. In this way, we achieve intracellular CS production of ~27 µg/g dry-cell-weight with about 96% of the disaccharides sulfated. We further explore four different factors that can affect the sulfation levels of this microbial product. Overall, this is a demonstration of simple, one-step microbial production of a sulfated GAG and marks an important step in the animal-free production of these molecules.

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

OBJECTIVES: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China. METHODS: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces. RESULTS: School closures, travel restrictions, community-level lockdown, and contact tracing were introduced concurrently around late January but subsequent epidemic trends differed among provinces. Compared with Hubei, the other five most-affected provinces reported a lower crude case fatality ratio and proportion of critical and severe hospitalised cases. From March 2020, as the local transmission of COVID-19 declined, switching the focus of measures to the testing and quarantine of inbound travellers may have helped to sustain the control of the epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated indicators of case notifications and severity distributions are essential for monitoring an epidemic. A publicly available database containing these indicators and information regarding control measures is a useful resource for further research and policy planning in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

Power calculations for cluster randomized trials (CRTs) with right-truncated Poisson-distributed outcomes: a motivating example from a malaria vector control trial.

BACKGROUND: Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are increasingly used to study the efficacy of interventions targeted at the population level. Formulae exist to calculate sample sizes for CRTs, but they assume that the domain of the outcomes being considered covers the full range of values of the considered distribution. This assumption is frequently incorrect in epidemiological trials in which counts of infection episodes are right-truncated due to practical constraints on the number of times a person can be tested. METHODS: Motivated by a malaria vector control trial with right-truncated Poisson-distributed outcomes, we investigated the effect of right-truncation on power using Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: The results demonstrate that the adverse impact of right-truncation is directly proportional to the magnitude of the event rate, λ, with calculations of power being overestimated in instances where right-truncation was not accounted for. The severity of the adverse impact of right-truncation on power was more pronounced when the number of clusters was ≤30 but decreased the further the right-truncation point was from zero. CONCLUSIONS: Potential right-truncation should always be accounted for in the calculation of sample size requirements at the study design stage.

Designer DNA architecture offers precise and multivalent spatial pattern-recognition for viral sensing and inhibition.

DNA, when folded into nanostructures with a specific shape, is capable of spacing and arranging binding sites into a complex geometric pattern with nanometre precision. Here we demonstrate a designer DNA nanostructure that can act as a template to display multiple binding motifs with precise spatial pattern-recognition properties, and that this approach can confer exceptional sensing and potent viral inhibitory capabilities. A star-shaped DNA architecture, carrying five molecular beacon-like motifs, was constructed to display ten dengue envelope protein domain III (ED3)-targeting aptamers into a two-dimensional pattern precisely matching the spatial arrangement of ED3 clusters on the dengue (DENV) viral surface. The resulting multivalent interactions provide high DENV-binding avidity. We show that this structure is a potent viral inhibitor and that it can act as a sensor by including a fluorescent output to report binding. Our molecular-platform design strategy could be adapted to detect and combat other disease-causing pathogens by generating the requisite ligand patterns on customized DNA nanoarchitectures.

Modular Assembly of Unique Chimeric Lytic Enzymes on a Protein Scaffold Possessing Anti-Staphylococcal Activity.

Lytic enzymes have been considered as potential alternatives to antibiotics. These enzymes, particularly those that target Gram-positive bacteria, consist of modular cell wall-binding and catalytic domains, which can be shuffled with those of other lytic enzymes to produce unnatural chimeric enzymes. In this work, we report the in vitro shuffling of two different modular domains using a protein self-assembly methodology. Catalytic domains (CD) and cell wall-binding domains (BD) from the bacteriocin lysostaphin (Lst) and a putative autolysin from Staphylococcus aureus (SA1), respectively, were genetically site-specifically biotinylated and assembled with streptavidin to generate 23 permuted chimeras. The specific assembly of a CD (3 equiv) and a BD (1 equiv) from Lst and SA1, respectively [CDL-BDS (3:1)], on a streptavidin scaffold yielded high lytic activity against S. aureus (at least 5.6 log reduction), which was higher than that obtained with either native Lst or SA1 alone. Moreover, at 37 °C, the initial rate of cell lysis was over 3-fold higher than that with free Lst, thereby revealing the unique catalytic properties of the chimeric proteins. In vitro self-assembly of functional domains from modular lytic enzymes on a protein scaffold likely expands the repertoire of bactericidal enzymes with improved activities.

Complex between a Multicrossover DNA Nanostructure, PX-DNA, and T7 Endonuclease I.

Paranemic crossover DNA (PX-DNA) is a four-stranded multicrossover structure that has been implicated in recombination-independent recognition of homology. Although existing evidence has suggested that PX is the DNA motif in homologous pairing (HP), this conclusion remains ambiguous. Further investigation is needed but will require development of new tools. Here, we report characterization of the complex between PX-DNA and T7 endonuclease I (T7endoI), a junction-resolving protein that could serve as the prototype of an anti-PX ligand (a critical prerequisite for the future development of such tools). Specifically, nuclease-inactive T7endoI was produced and its ability to bind to PX-DNA was analyzed using a gel retardation assay. The molar ratio of PX to T7endoI was determined using gel electrophoresis and confirmed by the Hill equation. Hydroxyl radical footprinting of T7endoI on PX-DNA is used to verify the positive interaction between PX and T7endoI and to provide insight into the binding region. Cleavage of PX-DNA by wild-type T7endoI produces DNA fragments, which were used to identify the interacting sites on PX for T7endoI and led to a computational model of their interaction. Altogether, this study has identified a stable complex of PX-DNA and T7endoI and lays the foundation for engineering an anti-PX ligand, which can potentially assist in the study of molecular mechanisms for HP at an advanced level.